Agentic Commerce Outpaces ChatGPT Ads Growth

The future of digital commerce is shifting from advertising on large language models like ChatGPT to agentic commerce, where the transaction itself becomes the advertising unit. This evolution is driven by brands refining their product data to influence AI-powered purchasing decisions, rather than relying on referral traffic from platforms like ChatGPT.

Recent analysis indicates that while referral traffic from ChatGPT to external websites grew by 206% in 2025, this growth is attributed to increased engagement from existing users, not an expansion of its user base, which has remained largely flat since September 2025. This lack of audience growth presents a structural challenge for building a scalable advertising business, as ad revenue typically depends on reach and a growing user base.

OpenAI's financial performance further highlights these challenges. The company reported $13 billion in revenue against $34 billion in costs and expenses in 2025, resulting in an operating loss of nearly $21 billion. Although the cost to generate revenue improved from $2.37 in 2024 to $1.60 per dollar in 2025, this progress is not yet sufficient to offset the substantial losses. These financial realities are likely a contributing factor to OpenAI postponing its initial public offering until next year.

In contrast to OpenAI's financial situation, Amazon's performance when it went public saw a loss of $30 million in its IPO year. The focus on agentic commerce suggests a move towards more integrated and automated purchasing experiences, where AI agents facilitate transactions and brands leverage this integration for promotional impact. This approach prioritizes direct influence within the purchase flow over traditional advertising models.