Paul Keating: Aukus Locks Australia Into Losing US-China War

Former Australian Prime Minister Paul Keating asserted on September 18, 2026, that the Aukus security pact is irrevocably binding Australia to participate in any future military conflict initiated by the United States against China. Keating expressed his conviction that such a war would be one the United States would "certainly lose," predicting that America would ultimately retreat, leaving Australia to face the consequences of Chinese retribution. He specifically referenced comments made by Republican congressman Michael McCaul, co-chair of the Congressional Friends of Australia caucus, who was reported this week out of Washington to have stated that "Australia is a target" for adversaries of the United States. McCaul, however, presented this vulnerability as a reason for closer military integration with the US, arguing it would enhance Australia's security rather than diminish it. Keating's critique centers on the strategic implications of Aukus, which involves the United States and the United Kingdom providing Australia with nuclear-powered submarine technology. This technological acquisition is a cornerstone of the trilateral security pact, aimed at bolstering Australia's defense capabilities and enhancing deterrence in the Indo-Pacific region. The agreement, announced in September 2021, has been a significant development in regional security architecture, drawing both support and criticism. Keating, a long-standing critic of the pact, views it as a strategic miscalculation that escalates tensions and draws Australia into geopolitical disputes that do not align with its national interests. He suggests that the US, in such a scenario, would eventually withdraw its forces, leaving Australia exposed. The former prime minister's remarks highlight a deep division in Australian foreign policy perspectives regarding the nation's alignment with the United States and its approach to managing relations with China, Australia's largest trading partner. The debate over Aukus involves complex considerations of national sovereignty, regional stability, and the economic implications of geopolitical alignments. Keating's analysis implies that the technological and strategic commitments under Aukus create an unavoidable entanglement, regardless of Australia's independent strategic assessments or preferences. The former prime minister's strong stance underscores the ongoing debate about Australia's role in the Indo-Pacific and its relationship with major global powers.