Nvidia Forecasts 70% Revenue Growth, Exceeding Analyst Expectations

Nvidia announced a preliminary forecast of 70% revenue growth for the upcoming fiscal year, a projection that significantly exceeded analyst expectations and sent its stock price rallying in after-hours trading. This marks the first time the company has provided a year-ahead forecast, a move intended to address concerns about an "AI bubble" and "circular financing." The projected 70% growth rate for fiscal year 2028 is substantially higher than the approximately 44% growth previously anticipated by analysts, who had modeled fiscal 2028 revenue around $570 billion. Applying Nvidia's projected growth to its current fiscal year revenue would imply a fiscal 2028 revenue range of $690 billion to $700 billion, over $100 billion more than the $570 billion analysts had been forecasting.

CEO Jensen Huang stated on a conference call that the company wanted to ensure "everybody has the same set of information" and described the upcoming year as "pretty extraordinary." He acknowledged that Nvidia has "never forecasted, never guided to a year in advance." Melissa Otto, global head of Visible Alpha research at S&P Global, commented that the magnitude of the top-line growth "blew away expectations," particularly given the company's usual practice of not providing such long-term guidance. Otto noted that the "70% fiscal year 2028 number" was a key factor that "wowed the market."

Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress indicated that customer forecasts suggest Nvidia's growth will double in the next year. Her remarks were delivered after market close, leading to Nvidia's stock increasing by more than 4% in after-hours trading. Despite the strong demand, Nvidia is currently facing significant supply chain constraints, a challenge common among major technology companies. Huang explained that the "entire supply chain is challenged" and that "everybody is really running flat out." He further elaborated that if not for these supply limitations, the revenue growth for the next year would have been even higher. "Even though our demand is much greater than 70%, our supply allows us to confidently deliver 70%," Huang stated, underscoring the immense demand for Nvidia's artificial intelligence hardware. The company's advanced graphics processing units (GPUs) are critical components for training and deploying large-scale AI models, driving the unprecedented demand.