AI Creates More Jobs Than Automation Displaces, McKinsey Finds

McKinsey research indicates that artificial intelligence is poised to create more jobs in the U.S. economy than automation will displace by 2035. Despite this net job creation, the study highlights a significant challenge: approximately 11 million American workers will likely need assistance to transition into growing occupations over the next decade.

The research projects that the U.S. economy will have a greater number of jobs in 2035 compared to the present. However, the composition of these jobs will shift, necessitating that many workers acquire new skills or obtain credentials. A substantial portion, estimated at 11 million individuals, may need to move from declining occupations to entirely different fields. While many will find roles within their existing occupational groups, an average of 770,000 workers annually will need to change occupational lines over the coming decade. This rate is 3.6 times higher than historical trends, with the disruption expected to persist for at least ten years, unlike the shorter surge experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic.

One illustrative example provided by the research involves administrative assistants. Automation is projected to take over 80 percent of the hours worked in office and administrative support roles, the occupational group anticipated to face the largest job losses by 2035. The study identifies project manager as a growing occupation with higher pay that administrative assistants can transition into. Their existing skills in planning, scheduling, coordinating operations, documenting decisions, and managing stakeholders align with approximately 58 percent of a project manager's tasks. However, significant gaps exist in areas such as project-scheduling methods, process improvement, forecasting, quality management, and business development. A major barrier to this transition is the common requirement for a bachelor's degree and professional certification for project manager positions, representing a substantial investment in terms of both cost and time for affected workers.

The research emphasizes that the primary constraint for such transitions is not necessarily the workers' ability to perform the new job, but their willingness to invest significant financial resources and several years into education and credentialing. The study also notes that some occupational transitions are more challenging than others, citing the example of a dishwasher seeking to become a home health aide, an occupation projected to grow. The research underscores the need for proactive strategies and support systems to facilitate these large-scale workforce adjustments, ensuring that workers can navigate the evolving job market effectively.