Kremlin Suspected of Drone Flights Using Shadow Fleet

The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) has assessed that a coordinated Kremlin campaign, potentially launched from Russian-linked commercial ships, may be responsible for mysterious drone flights that disrupted major European airports and flew over NATO member military bases. This assessment utilized automatic identification system (AIS) maritime tracking data and other publicly available information to link Russian-linked ships and "shadow fleet" vessels, used for transporting sanctioned Russian oil, to the vicinity of various drone incidents.

The IISS report indicates that these drone incidents, which affected a dozen NATO member countries and Ireland between August 2024 and February 2026, highlighted the vulnerability of European air defenses to surveillance and harassment by low-cost drones. The think tank identified 144 drone sightings across Europe during this period that were unlikely to be related to hobbyist drones or activities connected to the war in Ukraine. These sightings represent a significant number of incursions that challenged existing defense protocols.

Analysis of the drone sightings revealed specific patterns of activity. Approximately 48 percent of the sightings occurred over military bases, underscoring a potential focus on strategic defense installations. Another 26 percent of incidents took place over critical infrastructure, including ports and energy or industrial facilities, suggesting an interest in disrupting or monitoring vital economic and logistical hubs. Furthermore, 18 percent of the sightings were over civilian airports, indicating a broader impact on air travel and transportation networks. The majority of these flights were observed during nighttime or early morning hours, and the drones were frequently described as resembling professional or military-style models.