AI Could Displace 11 Million US Workers by 2035

Artificial intelligence and automation are projected to necessitate career changes for approximately 11 million workers in the United States by 2035, representing about 7% of the total workforce. This forecast comes from a report released on Tuesday by the management consulting firm McKinsey. The report further estimates that automation could lead to a reduction in labor demand across the U.S. by 21%, which translates to roughly 36 million jobs over the next decade. While economic growth is expected to enable about 25 million workers to continue in their current roles, the remaining 11 million may need to transition to entirely new occupations. This scenario implies an annual requirement for approximately 770,000 workers to switch occupational groups, a rate that is 3.6 times higher than the historical average. The report acknowledges that, similar to previous technological shifts, the era of AI could ultimately generate more jobs than it eliminates. However, it anticipates this transition will demand "the largest and most sustained workforce transformation in US history." Even for those who remain in their existing professions, significant adaptation will be necessary, with over 70% of workers predicted to require "some level of reinvention." Specific sectors identified as facing the most substantial potential impact from AI and automation include office and administrative support; agriculture, fishing, and forestry; and technology/analytics. These findings emerge against a backdrop of a relatively stagnant labor market in recent years. Although widespread mass layoffs have not materialized, job growth has been sluggish, and employee turnover has remained low. Data released shortly before the report indicated a decrease in job openings to a five-month low by the end of August. Concurrently, the rate of "voluntary quits," often used by economists as an indicator of worker confidence, stayed near a six-year low. This sentiment is further reflected in Glassdoor’s Employee Confidence Index, which reached its third record low of the year in September, signaling growing anxieties among employees regarding job security, the advancement of AI, and the broader economic climate. The report's projections underscore the profound societal and economic adjustments that may be required to navigate the widespread integration of AI and automation into the American workforce.