Zillow Forecasts Flat National Home Price Growth, Highlights Regional Variations

Zillow, a prominent online real estate marketplace and data provider, has released its updated 12-month home price forecast, projecting a modest +0.0% change in the U.S. home price index between June 2026 and June 2027. This represents a slight upward revision from their prior forecast in June, which anticipated a -0.2% decline. Currently, the Zillow Home Value Index indicates that U.S. home prices have risen by +1.1% year-over-year. Zillow's latest outlook suggests this subdued national growth pace will persist, forecasting a -0.1% national market movement over the next year.

Economists at Zillow believe that as long as national home price appreciation remains below the rate of U.S. wage growth, which currently stands at +3.6%, the underlying fundamentals of the housing market are poised for continued improvement. This scenario is expected to help smooth out the demand-driven overheating experienced during the "Pandemic Housing Boom" and gradually enhance national housing affordability, contingent upon mortgage rates not experiencing a significant spike.

While Zillow's national forecast is not overtly negative, it signals a "soft" housing market for 2026, characterized by a gradual improvement in affordability. This improvement is predicated on income growth continuing to outpace home price appreciation. The forecast also underscores significant regional disparities, with Zillow anticipating varied performance across more than 400 housing markets nationwide.

Among the 300 largest U.S. metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs), Zillow forecasts the most substantial home price increases between June 2026 and June 2027 in specific locations. Leading this list is Rockford, Illinois, with a projected appreciation of +4.3%. Syracuse, New York, follows with an anticipated +3.6% increase, and Atlantic City, New Jersey, is projected to see a +3.5% rise. Other metros expected to experience notable growth include Utica, New York (+3.3%), Binghamton, New York (+3.3%), Norwich, Connecticut (+3.1%), Erie, Pennsylvania (+3.0%), New Haven, Connecticut (+2.8%), and Green Bay, Wisconsin (+2.8%).

The Zillow Home Value Index is a widely recognized metric that tracks the typical value of homes in the U.S. housing market over time, providing a comprehensive measure of market trends. This specific 12-month outlook from June 2026 to June 2027 offers a focused perspective on the near-term trajectory of the real estate sector. The dynamic interplay between wage growth and home price appreciation is a critical component of Zillow's affordability projections, suggesting that a sustained gap favoring income growth will ultimately benefit prospective homebuyers.