AI's Impact: Search Demand Shifts, Not Shrinks

Search demand is undergoing a significant redistribution rather than an overall reduction, according to an analysis of over 1 million high-volume keywords. The study, conducted by Fractl and Search Engine Land, found that 29% of search demand is in decline, while a nearly equivalent amount is growing in new areas. This indicates that search behavior is evolving as users adapt to AI-powered tools and virtual agents, rather than abandoning traditional search engines entirely. Overall search volume remains largely flat due to this redistribution.

The analysis examined Semrush data for 1,010,848 keywords, each with at least 10,000 monthly searches, across 379 brands in eight industry verticals. This dataset represents approximately 35.4 billion monthly searches. The findings challenge Gartner's 2024 prediction that traditional search engine volume would fall 25% by 2026. The observed 29% decline in search volume is 4 percentage points higher than Gartner's forecast, translating to a substantial volume of searches when considering the total scale.

Industry-specific variations in search decline were notable. The FinTech sector experienced the largest decline in search volume at -37.7%, while the Lifestyle vertical saw the smallest decrease at -15.2%. Only three of the eight verticals analyzed showed growth in search demand, highlighting the uneven impact of AI on different industries. The study also incorporated a survey of 1,004 U.S. consumers to understand how AI is influencing their search habits and preferences.

SEO strategies must adapt to these shifting patterns. The research emphasizes the importance of identifying keywords that are losing volume and, more critically, pinpointing queries that are gaining momentum. Building brand authority is crucial for visibility in both traditional search engine results and AI-generated answers. The study suggests that brands should aim to be recommended by AI, understanding where their presence is strong or weak in AI search results and what is required to become a preferred AI recommendation.