Climate Attribution Science Matures, Posing Risk to Oil Companies

The field of climate attribution science, which determines the extent to which human-caused climate change influences specific extreme weather events, is maturing significantly. A report released by the US National Academies of Science on Thursday indicates that this scientific discipline can now answer questions with much greater confidence than it could a decade ago, establishing it as mainstream science. This increased confidence has implications for various sectors, including building codes and disaster preparedness, by providing clearer links between greenhouse gas emissions and events like heat waves, droughts, and excessive precipitation.

The growing certainty in climate attribution science presents a potential challenge for the fossil fuel industry. The ability to more definitively link extreme weather events to the greenhouse gases emitted by these companies could facilitate legal liability for damages. This prospect has reportedly triggered a backlash, with some Republicans in Congress and state governments threatening the funding of the National Academies of Science, according to the report.

While the report highlights the advancements in attribution science, it also acknowledges existing limitations and proposes steps to address them. The overall assessment suggests that climate attribution is no longer a niche area but a well-established scientific practice. The US National Academies of Science's findings underscore the increasing scientific capacity to quantify the impact of human activities on the climate system and its consequences.