Global Autocratization Linked to Economic Liberalization

The V-Dem Project's 2026 report indicates that 41% of the global population resides in autocratizing countries, marking a "third wave of autocratization" that has regressed democracy to 1978 levels. Many of the 92 existing autocracies are increasing their repression, a trend that contradicts the earlier belief among political economists that globalization and economic liberalization would foster democratic transitions. José Kaire, an associate professor at Arizona State University and author of "The Road to Repression," proposes a theory explaining this paradox. Kaire's work challenges the long-held notion, influenced by economists like Milton Friedman and Friedrich Hayek, that reducing state economic control through privatization, deregulation, and open trade would inherently lead to greater political freedom.

The traditional logic posited that by diminishing the state's economic power, its capacity for repression would also decrease. As citizens became less reliant on government for economic opportunities, they were expected to gain the autonomy needed to organize and demand democratic reforms. This perspective was a cornerstone of the Washington Consensus, a policy framework promoted by international financial institutions and major global powers, which advocated for economic liberalization as a universal prescription for development.

However, Kaire's research suggests a different outcome. Instead of fostering broader political freedoms, economic liberalization in authoritarian states can create a new class of elites who benefit from and actively support the existing repressive structures. These elites, often aligned with or created by the state's economic policies, have a vested interest in maintaining the status quo, which allows them to consolidate their wealth and influence. This dynamic can lead to a more entrenched and sophisticated form of authoritarianism, where economic gains are used to bolster political control rather than undermine it.

This phenomenon is particularly relevant in the context of burgeoning AI booms in countries like China and the United States. The concentration of power and wealth associated with advanced technological development can exacerbate the creation of these kowtowing elites, further complicating the relationship between economic progress and democratic governance on a global scale. The book explores how this economic liberalization-authoritarianism link operates, offering a critical re-evaluation of established economic and political theories.