Strong early math skills equal later algebra success

Third grade math scores strongly predict a student's likelihood of passing Algebra I, according to a working paper analyzing the test scores of over 1.7 million Texas students. The study, conducted by the American Institutes for Research (AIR) and the National Center for the Analysis of Longitudinal Data in Education Research (CALDER), found that disparities in Algebra I pass rates between low-income, Black, and Hispanic students and their more affluent, white, and Asian peers can be largely attributed to differences in early foundational math skill mastery. Ben Backes, a principal economist at AIR and a co-author of the paper, stated that third grade is the earliest point at which researchers can measure early math learning, emphasizing that these foundational skills are developed even before third grade. The research specifically focused on Algebra I due to its critical role as a gateway course for advanced mathematics, college graduation, and higher future earnings. The paper also highlighted the pandemic's impact on academic growth, noting that low-income students with similar pre-pandemic scores to their more affluent peers experienced greater academic setbacks, and students with lower initial scores saw a more significant decline in their math abilities compared to higher-achieving students. The authors concluded that previous policy interventions, such as delaying Algebra I until ninth grade or universal enrollment, may not address the fundamental issue of early math proficiency.