Netanyahu Bets on Trump's Lack of Political Will

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is reportedly wagering that former United States President Donald Trump, despite possessing significant leverage, will ultimately lack the political will to enforce his proposed plan for the Gaza Strip. This strategic gamble by Netanyahu hinges on an assessment of Trump's past actions and his current political calculus, suggesting that Trump may prioritize other domestic or international concerns over exerting pressure on Israel regarding the future of Gaza.

Trump's potential leverage stems from his influence within the Republican party and his past administration's strong support for Israel. During his presidency, Trump moved the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem and brokered normalization deals between Israel and several Arab nations, demonstrating a willingness to take decisive action on Middle East policy. This history suggests that if Trump were to commit to a specific Gaza plan, he could potentially use diplomatic, economic, or even military aid as leverage to ensure its implementation. However, Netanyahu's bet implies a belief that Trump's approach to foreign policy, particularly in his post-presidency, is more transactional and less focused on sustained diplomatic engagement or enforcement mechanisms.

The context for this dynamic is the ongoing conflict in Gaza and the international pressure for a resolution. Various proposals for the post-conflict governance of Gaza have been put forward, and the United States, under the Biden administration, has been actively involved in diplomatic efforts. Trump, however, has offered his own distinct perspective, often critical of current U.S. foreign policy. Netanyahu's apparent calculation is that Trump, if he were to regain influence or power, might adopt a more isolationist or America-first approach that would reduce his inclination to engage in complex, long-term diplomatic enforcement in the Middle East. This could translate into a willingness to accept Israeli policy decisions regarding Gaza, even if they diverge from broader international consensus or previous U.S. stances.

Netanyahu's strategy, as interpreted by observers, is to navigate the immediate pressures of the conflict and domestic politics by relying on the perceived unreliability or disinterest of a potential future U.S. administration under Trump. This approach carries significant risks, as it depends on predicting Trump's behavior and political priorities accurately. Should Trump decide to exert his leverage, Netanyahu's government could face considerable diplomatic pressure. Conversely, if Netanyahu's assessment proves correct, he may gain more autonomy in shaping Israel's policies concerning Gaza without facing significant external opposition from a key ally.