US Homicides Trend Toward Historic Low in 2026

Homicides in the United States are on track to reach a historically low number in 2026, according to a new report from the Council on Criminal Justice. Data collected from 30 American cities indicates an 18% decrease in the homicide rate from 2025 compared to the same period in 2026. This reduction translates to approximately 215 fewer homicides this year. If this trend persists, the annual homicide rate would be the lowest recorded in over a century by the time final figures are released at the end of the year.

The report, released on Thursday, also tracked 13 different crime categories and found decreases in nine of them. These included reductions in carjackings, residential burglaries, and aggravated assaults. However, the report did note a slight increase in shoplifting, domestic violence incidents, sexual assaults, and drug offenses during the same 2025-2026 period. Experts suggest that these broadly positive changes are surpassing expectations and improving upon crime rates observed before the COVID-19 pandemic, which had previously led to significant surges in violence.

Both Democrats and Republicans are seeking to leverage these positive crime trends during the current midterm election year. The report's findings are consistent across cities with diverse political leadership, suggesting that the factors contributing to these improvements are widespread and not attributable to any single local public safety initiative. Adam Gelb, the president and CEO of the Council on Criminal Justice, stated that murder and other crime rates are declining across the country in cities with varying political leadership, economic conditions, policing strategies, and levels of federal enforcement.

The Council on Criminal Justice gathers its data from police departments and other law enforcement agencies. Some of the crime categories analyzed in the report incorporate data from up to 36 cities, while others include fewer cities in their totals due to data availability. The nonpartisan think tank focuses on criminal justice policy and research.