El Niño Disrupts Pacific Fisheries, Creating Winners and Losers

The "super" El Niño, a natural Pacific weather pattern characterized by warmer sea surface temperatures, has begun to disrupt fisheries worldwide within its first month. In Peru, government officials have effectively canceled the anchovy fishing season, a critical export for fish oil and animal feed. Simultaneously, the Indian government anticipates a season with smaller and less abundant Indian mackerel. Conversely, Southern California has experienced some of the most successful tuna fishing months on record, illustrating the divergent impacts of El Niño.

These contrasting outcomes demonstrate El Niño's ability to create both advantages and disadvantages across the fishing industry. While some species face decimation, others become more accessible to catch. This instability forces many fishers to consider diversifying their operations seasonally. Consumers can anticipate price fluctuations for key fish products as a result of these shifts.

Juan Carlos Sueiro, an economist and fisheries director for Oceana Peru, expressed concern, noting that "our vulnerability is increasing" as climate change is projected to intensify the frequency and strength of El Niño events. El Niño occurs every two to seven years in the tropical Pacific Ocean and was named by Peruvian fishers centuries ago due to periodic declines in their catches around Christmas.

The phenomenon's varied effects on different fisheries are attributed to its influence on ocean water circulation. Typically, trade winds move warm equatorial water from South America towards Asia, allowing cold, nutrient-rich water to rise from the ocean depths through a process called upwelling, which supports surface algae growth. During an El Niño, weakened trade winds reduce or halt this upwelling, altering marine ecosystems and fish populations.