Bitcoin has reached a deep bear-market valuation zone. The hard part may come next.

Bitcoin entered a deep bear-market valuation zone this week, according to analysis of two widely watched gauges. One metric, the Mayer Multiple, which compares the current price of Bitcoin to its 200-day moving average, has fallen below 0.8. This level has historically preceded significant price rebounds, but the analyst, on-chain data firm CryptoQuant, warns that a "slow grind" phase may follow. CryptoQuant's "all exchanges net unrealized profit/loss" metric also indicates capitulation, showing that the total market value of Bitcoin held by investors is below their acquisition cost. This suggests that a substantial portion of holders are currently at a loss, a common characteristic of bear market bottoms. However, the firm's "long-term holder SOPR" metric, which tracks the profitability of long-term investors, has not yet shown a clear reversal, implying that the market may still be in a prolonged period of price consolidation rather than an immediate recovery. The firm's analysis, published on June 12, 2024, suggests that while the conditions for a bottom are present, the path to recovery could be protracted, with potential for further sideways movement or gradual price decline before a sustained uptrend begins.