Ethiopia's Tigray Peace Deal Fails to Resolve Key Disputes

The November 2022 peace agreement that ended the devastating two-year war in Ethiopia's Tigray region has not fully resolved underlying disputes, creating an environment where the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) has been able to regroup. This resurgence of the TPLF's influence is occurring as tensions between the TPLF and the federal government, as well as with neighboring Amhara forces, begin to re-emerge. The peace deal, brokered by the African Union, was hailed as a significant step towards stability, but its implementation has been hampered by persistent disagreements over critical issues.

One of the primary unresolved disputes centers on the status of Western Tigray, a territory claimed by both Tigrayans and Amharas, and which has been a flashpoint for conflict. The withdrawal of Eritrean forces, also a signatory to the peace deal, has been inconsistent, with reports of continued presence and involvement in certain areas, further complicating the security landscape. The disarmament of TPLF fighters, a key component of the agreement, has also faced challenges, with questions remaining about the extent and completeness of the process. These unresolved issues have created a fragile peace, allowing the TPLF to rebuild its capacity and reassert its political and military presence.

The TPLF, which dominated Ethiopian politics for nearly three decades before being sidelined in 2018, views the current situation as an opportunity to regain influence. The federal government, led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, faces the difficult task of balancing the demands of various ethnic groups and ensuring the full implementation of the peace accord. The Amhara regional government, a key ally of the federal government during the war, has expressed dissatisfaction with the peace deal's handling of territorial claims, particularly concerning Western Tigray. This has led to ongoing friction and a lack of full cooperation, undermining the broader peace efforts. The international community, which provided significant humanitarian aid during the conflict, continues to monitor the situation closely, urging all parties to adhere to the peace agreement and engage in dialogue to resolve outstanding issues. The continued presence of unresolved disputes poses a significant risk to the long-term stability of Ethiopia and the wider Horn of Africa region.