School Shootings Researcher Admits Long-Held Belief Was Wrong

Ron Avi Astor, a prominent scholar of school violence and a professor at the University of California, Los Angeles, announced a significant shift in his long-held beliefs regarding the prevention of school shootings. Speaking at the annual meeting of the American Educational Research Association (AERA) in April, Astor declared, "We were wrong," indicating that his previous focus on improving school climate and reducing bullying as primary deterrents to school shootings has proven insufficient. For decades, Astor advocated for these strategies, advising national policymakers and recommending that schools invest in social-emotional learning, restorative justice, trauma-informed care, and counseling. These initiatives have indeed yielded positive outcomes, such as a reported decrease in students bringing weapons to school and an overall improvement in school safety. However, despite these efforts, the incidence of school shootings has not declined. Astor explained in a post-conference interview that he experienced a "complete change" in his thinking after re-evaluating the evidence. During his AERA presentation, he illustrated this divergence with two graphs. The first graph depicted a steady decline in students reporting weapon-related behaviors in California schools over the 25 years following the Columbine High School massacre in 1999. Data from the California Healthy Kids Survey, covering academic years 2001–2024, showed substantial decreases in four weapon-related indicators among students in grades 7, 9, and 11. Concurrently, the second graph revealed a sharp national increase in school shooting incidents. The K-12 School Shooting Database, which tracks any incident involving a gun being brandished, fired, or a bullet striking a school, recorded a rise in such events across the nation during the same period. This stark contrast between improved school-level safety measures and persistent or increasing rates of school shootings prompted Astor's re-evaluation. His revised perspective suggests that while efforts to create a more positive and supportive school environment are beneficial for students in numerous ways, they do not directly correlate with a reduction in mass shooting events. The researcher's acknowledgment of error marks a rare instance of a scientist publicly revising a foundational theory, potentially influencing future research and policy directions in school safety.