Why beef is about to get even more expensive this summer grilling season

The cost of beef is facing increased pressure this summer grilling season due to a combination of factors, including a screwworm outbreak and potential trade disruptions. The screwworm infestation, which originated in Mexico, has now spread to the United States, impacting a cattle herd already at historic lows not seen since the 1950s, exacerbated by drought conditions. This situation is occurring as U.S. and Mexican trade negotiators met on June 16-17, 2026, to discuss the North American trade agreement. President Donald Trump has indicated a potential non-renewal or withdrawal from the agreement, which has deeply integrated cattle and beef markets across Canada, Mexico, and the United States. Beef is a significant agricultural import and export for the U.S., making the industry highly susceptible to disruptions in this trade deal. For instance, the price of ground beef has already risen by over 20% since January 2025. The current trade uncertainty, stemming from a more fragmented negotiation approach, arrives at a critical time for consumers already contending with inflation. The instability in the North American beef market could lead to further supply shortages and price increases. The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), established in 1994, previously facilitated free trade, and was later replaced by the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) in 2020, which mandates a joint review every six years and includes a 16-year sunset clause.