The Typical Home Will Cost a Million Dollars as Millennials Hit Retirement, Economist Says

The median U.S. home price is projected to reach $1 million by approximately 2050, coinciding with the millennial generation's traditional retirement age, according to Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors®. Yun stated this projection during a conference in Washington, D.C., noting that the national median home price was $90,000 in 1990, and even San Francisco's median price was only $250,000 that same year. Last month, the national median sales price for existing homes stood at nearly $430,000. Yun's analysis, utilizing multiple scenarios, consistently pointed to a 25-year timeline for the median home price to hit the $1 million mark. He also predicted solid job gains of 400,000 for 2026 and does not anticipate an economic recession in the U.S. for that year. Yun's 2026 housing market forecast anticipates mortgage rates averaging 6.5%, similar to current levels, and projects home prices to increase by 4% this year, a slight rise from the 3% gain in 2025. Existing-home sales transaction volume is expected to grow by 4% from the 30-year low recorded in 2025, a period characterized by high interest rates impacting market activity. While mortgage rates have increased from late February's three-year lows, they remain slightly lower than a year ago, providing some stimulus to the housing market.