India Monsoon Starts Almost 40% Short as El Niño Upends Weather

India’s monsoon began on June 8, 2024, with rainfall deficits of nearly 40% across the country, marking an unusually weak start that threatens agricultural output and industrial operations. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) reported that as of June 10, 2024, the cumulative rainfall deficit stood at 39% below the long-period average for the period from March 1 to June 10. This deficit is attributed to the prevailing El Niño weather pattern, which typically disrupts normal monsoon patterns in India. The IMD has forecast that the monsoon's progress is likely to remain sluggish in the initial weeks, with below-normal rainfall expected in northwest and central India during July. The agricultural sector, which relies heavily on monsoon rains for sowing and crop development, faces significant risks, potentially impacting food security and prices. Industrial activity, particularly in sectors dependent on water resources, may also experience disruptions. The weak monsoon commencement follows a period of intense heatwaves across northern and eastern India in May, exacerbating water scarcity concerns. The IMD's forecast indicates a potential shift towards La Niña conditions later in the year, which could influence the latter part of the monsoon season, but the immediate outlook remains challenging.